The Class of 2004 should have an easier time finding work than other college grads have had in recent years. The nonprofit National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE) measures the potential job market for new grads by polling its company members on four separate occasions throughout the academic year. Three rounds of queries on plans to seek out this year’s crop of college grads all point to the first increase in hiring in two years. In August, NACE’s Job Outlook 2004 survey found that employers plan to hire 12.7 percent more new college graduates this year than last, marking the first projected increase since 2001. In NACE’s second round of the survey, released in November, nearly 70 percent of employers said their hiring plans hadn’t changed from when first asked in August. About 17 percent said they planned to hire more than they originally reported, compared with just under 14 percent who said they planned to hire fewer grads than when first asked in August. In general, employers reported being most interested in hiring business and engineering grads at both the bachelor’s and master’s degree levels. “We do look at areas of demand, but most questions looked very broadly at the job market for the whole class,” said Camille Luckenbaugh, research director for NACE. “We’re forecasting what employers expect the market to be like, and what we’ve found is really good news, because it’s the first time in two years we’re seeing a projected increase in hiring.” The most recent NACE survey update, released at the end of January, found that hiring intentions remain pretty much unchanged. It also found that more companies are moving toward accepting job applications only online. We recently talked to Luckenbaugh about NACE and what its survey, which will again be updated in April, could mean for this year’s college grads.
Q: Why does NACE exist?
A: The reason we exist is to put out information to our members. We’re a member-driven organization that serves two constituencies _ employers who hire and the career services people at colleges and universities who are guiding their students into getting jobs. Q: What is the job outlook survey?
A: The job outlook survey is a survey of our members that asks them to forecast what they expect the job market to be like. Q: What is your membership?
A: It varies, but our last survey had 1,077 employer members, and colleges and universities are probably at about 1,300. But we lose some and gain some every day, so it does change.
Q: What does the survey suggest so far?
A: It’s the best news we’ve seen in the past two years. But we don’t want everyone to think everything is rosy or back to where we were a few years ago. Some employers are feeling the recovery, but we have just under one third saying “We’re not there yet.” A lot are still looking at big budget constraints.
Q: What does the most recent survey indicate?
A: It’s positive. The winter update only goes out to people who had initially given us numbers in terms of how many they plan to hire this year, so it’s much smaller, with 222 employers surveyed. We found that 70 percent aren’t changing their hiring projections. Last year, it was 55 percent, so more people this year still intend to hire.
Q: What did you find about online job applications? A: We don’t have tons of information on this, but we’re hearing rumblings that it could become a big issue. We found that 17 percent of our employer members are accepting applications strictly online, and 11.5 percent said they’re moving toward that in the future. We’re hearing it’s a turnoff to some students, that some can’t even hand in resumes at college job fairs anymore.
We’re hearing that some companies don’t even want to talk about positions that are open or about the company at job fairs, that it’s more about how to go to the company’s Web site than “Let’s have a conversation.” Students tend to look for those employers who are willing to put out more personal contact, so employers might lose some good candidates. It’s an issue that’s kind of bubbling up now that I think can potentially be big.
Q: What’s the most important message this year’s graduates should take from your survey?
A: Things are looking up. Last year, we heard a lot about students being very negative and very apathetic about their prospects. This information indicates things are picking up, but don’t think you don’t have to work, because you will. Just know your chances are better this year.